Willem II 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and FC OSS meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC OSS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Willem II are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 5–0 with Willem II winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Willem II and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus FC OSS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 54% | FC OSS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.39 xG and FC OSS 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.751 / defence 1.031 | FC OSS attack 0.882 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.429. Willem II's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Willem II games / 52 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 39% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 35%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | FC OSS 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 39% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Willem II 1.39 / FC OSS 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.751 / def 1.031 | FC OSS attack 0.882 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Willem II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC OSS xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs FC OSS kick off?
Willem II vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs FC OSS?
Willem II 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Willem II vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs FC OSS part of?
Willem II vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 39% chance of winning, FC OSS a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Willem II and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC OSS?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 4W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Willem II and FC OSS in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.75x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.88x) against Willem II's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.86
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.68
1.30
FC OSS xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Willem II and 1.30 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 13W 12D 27L from 52 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 19D 22L across 52 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Willem II against 1.00 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 7W 4D 14L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 1W 12D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC OSS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.94 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 13W 12D 27L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 19D 22L in their last 52 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or FC OSS away?
Willem II's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.00 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-5 on 12 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Willem II
1
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, FC OSS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when FC OSS 1-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and FC OSS?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 60%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Willem II) and 40% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Willem II's recent matches and 48% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Willem II's recent games and 40% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and FC OSS tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.39 xG and FC OSS 1.30 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against FC OSS attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 39% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 35%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 54%, FC OSS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 0.98 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.