Waalwijk 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and Dordrecht meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Waalwijk's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Dordrecht and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 64% versus Dordrecht 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 66% | Dordrecht 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Dordrecht 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.884 / defence 1.159 | Dordrecht attack 0.821 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.544. Data: 21 Waalwijk games / 59 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 40% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Dordrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 40% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Waalwijk 1.55 / Dordrecht 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.884 / def 1.159 | Dordrecht attack 0.821 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.544 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Dordrecht xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Dordrecht kick off?
Waalwijk vs Dordrecht kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Waalwijk vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Dordrecht part of?
Waalwijk vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 40% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Waalwijk and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Dordrecht in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.88x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.82x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
40%
2.53
24%
4.10
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.02
1.47
Dordrecht xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.47 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk come into this having played 55 games, going 14W 12D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.58 PPG from 55 outings (25W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Waalwijk's home form reads 9W 5D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (10W 4D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.67 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 14W 12D 29L in their last 55 games (0.98 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 25W 12D 18L in their last 55 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.19 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
2
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Dordrecht?
From 3 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Dordrecht have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Waalwijk 2-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Dordrecht?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 59%, Dordrecht 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 59% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 44% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 59% of Dordrecht's.
Do Waalwijk and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk and Dordrecht finished level at 1-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Dordrecht 1.47 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Dordrecht attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 40% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 36%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, Dordrecht 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.