VVV Venlo 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees FC OSS travel to Seacon - De Koel to take on VVV Venlo. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo at Seacon - De Koel this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
VVV Venlo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour FC OSS, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for VVV Venlo.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with FC OSS winning.
It is worth noting that FC OSS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 51% versus FC OSS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 60% | FC OSS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.26 xG and FC OSS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.809 / defence 0.961 | FC OSS attack 0.686 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Data: 65 VVV Venlo games / 65 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 42% | Draw 31% | FC OSS 28%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | FC OSS 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
FC OSS lead the H2H ledger, but VVV Venlo carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is VVV Venlo at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 30% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 42% | Draw 31% | FC OSS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG VVV Venlo 1.26 / FC OSS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.809 / def 0.961 | FC OSS attack 0.686 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
FC OSS xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs FC OSS kick off?
VVV Venlo vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Seacon - De Koel.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
VVV Venlo 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS part of?
VVV Venlo vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 42% chance of winning, FC OSS a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both VVV Venlo and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
Record (9 meetings): VVV Venlo 2W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 6W.
What form are VVV Venlo and FC OSS in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 0.81x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.24
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.24
0.98
FC OSS xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 0.98 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 22W 11D 32L from 65 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 14W 22D 29L across 65 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.18 PPG, FC OSS on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 11W 5D 16L from 32 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 3W 15D 14L across 32 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.98 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and FC OSS in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 22W 11D 32L in their last 65 games (1.18 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 14W 22D 29L in their last 65 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or FC OSS away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.19 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VVV Venlo's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
6
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 2, FC OSS have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 47%, FC OSS 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (VVV Venlo) and 34% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 38% of games; FC OSS in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 44% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 34% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
VVV Venlo and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 28, as VVV Venlo and FC OSS drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.26 xG and FC OSS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against FC OSS attack 0.69 / defence 0.91, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 42% | Draw 31% | FC OSS 28%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 60%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.18 PPG, FC OSS 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.