Vitesse 1-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Volendam make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GelreDome this season.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Vitesse against 1.00 for FC Volendam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vitesse register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, FC Volendam in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitesse lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 57% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 57% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.83 xG and FC Volendam 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.947 / defence 1.108 | FC Volendam attack 1.164 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.470. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Vitesse games / 8 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 37% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 39%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | FC Volendam 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 90% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 37% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Vitesse 1.83 / FC Volendam 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.947 / def 1.108 | FC Volendam attack 1.164 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.90
FC Volendam xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs FC Volendam kick off?
Vitesse vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Vitesse 1 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Vitesse vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs FC Volendam part of?
Vitesse vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 37% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Vitesse and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Vitesse and FC Volendam in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.95x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.16x) against Vitesse's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
37%
2.73
24%
4.16
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.72
1.90
FC Volendam xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
5%
18.22
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Vitesse and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.90 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse come into this having played 42 games, going 8W 10D 24L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 0.69 PPG from 42 outings (7W 8D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Vitesse against 0.69 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitesse's home form reads 2W 9D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.57 points per game from 21 outings (2W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.21 scored and 2.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 8W 10D 24L in their last 42 games (0.81 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 7W 8D 27L in their last 42 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or FC Volendam away?
Vitesse's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.71 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-0 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Vitesse, 81% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vitesse) and 71% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vitesse's games and 81% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Vitesse's matches and 71% of FC Volendam's.
Do Vitesse and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Vitesse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.83 xG and FC Volendam 1.90 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against FC Volendam attack 1.16 / defence 1.34, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 37% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 39%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 57%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.81 PPG, FC Volendam 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.