Vitesse 0-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host FC OSS at GelreDome in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vitesse at 0.80 PPG versus FC OSS's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 61% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 61% | FC OSS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.38 xG and FC OSS 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.833 / defence 1.249 | FC OSS attack 0.652 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.498. Data: 12 Vitesse games / 50 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 32%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | FC OSS 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 90% | FC OSS 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Vitesse 1.38 / FC OSS 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.833 / def 1.249 | FC OSS attack 0.652 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.22
FC OSS xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs FC OSS kick off?
Vitesse vs FC OSS kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Vitesse 0 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Vitesse vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs FC OSS part of?
Vitesse vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 39% chance of winning, FC OSS a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vitesse and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and FC OSS in?
Vitesse (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.83) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.48
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.60
1.22
FC OSS xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Vitesse and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.22 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse come into this having played 46 games, going 8W 11D 27L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.93 PPG from 46 outings (12W 7D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 0.76 PPG, FC OSS on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vitesse's home form reads 2W 9D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.68 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (3W 4D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.83 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 8W 11D 27L in their last 46 games (0.76 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 7D 27L in their last 46 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or FC OSS away?
Vitesse's home record (0.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.68 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vitesse's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vitesse
3
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC OSS?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, FC OSS have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when FC OSS 1-2 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and FC OSS?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 68%, FC OSS 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vitesse) and 50% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 27% of games; FC OSS in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Vitesse's recent matches and 36% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vitesse's recent games and 50% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and FC OSS tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 13, as Vitesse and FC OSS drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.38 xG and FC OSS 1.22 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against FC OSS attack 0.65 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 39% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 32%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 61%, FC OSS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC OSS's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.76 PPG, FC OSS 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.