Vitesse 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vitesse at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Vitesse welcome Dordrecht to GelreDome. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 4W 2D 4L at GelreDome — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vitesse) versus 0.90 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Vitesse have won 0, Dordrecht 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 61% versus Dordrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 67% | Dordrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.59 xG and Dordrecht 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.923 / defence 0.888 | Dordrecht attack 0.791 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.565. Data: 61 Vitesse games / 61 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 48% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Dordrecht 4.00. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 48% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Vitesse 1.59 / Dordrecht 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.923 / def 0.888 | Dordrecht attack 0.791 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.565 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Dordrecht xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Dordrecht kick off?
Vitesse vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Vitesse 1 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Vitesse vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Dordrecht part of?
Vitesse vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 48% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vitesse and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Dordrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Dordrecht in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.92x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.72
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.69
1.10
Dordrecht xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
19.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.10 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse's recent record stands at 19W 18D 24L from 61 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 19L across 61 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.23 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 11W 5D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.62 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 27W 15D 19L in their last 61 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Dordrecht away?
Vitesse's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.43 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Dordrecht runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when Dordrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vitesse
2
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Dordrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, Dordrecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Vitesse 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 63%, Dordrecht 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Vitesse and 53% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Vitesse's recent matches and 43% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Vitesse's matches and 53% of Dordrecht's.
Do Vitesse and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Vitesse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.59 xG and Dordrecht 1.10 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Dordrecht attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 48% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 25%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.23 PPG, Dordrecht 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.