Telstar 3-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 30 as Telstar welcome Roda to 711 Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 711 Stadion.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Telstar 1.80 PPG, Roda 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Telstar, 4 for Roda and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Roda in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 54% versus Roda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 57% | Roda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.45 xG and Roda 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.442 / defence 0.793 | Roda attack 1.037 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.299. Telstar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — their λ of 2.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Telstar's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Telstar games / 68 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 68% | Draw 18% | Roda 15%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Roda 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.45 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 40% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 68% | Draw 18% | Roda 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Telstar 2.45 / Roda 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.442 / def 0.793 | Roda attack 1.037 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Telstar (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Roda xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Roda kick off?
Telstar vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Roda?
Telstar 3 - 1 Roda.
Where is Telstar vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Roda part of?
Telstar vs Roda is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 68% chance of winning, Roda a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Telstar and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
Record (7 meetings): Telstar 2W | Draws 1 | Roda 4W.
What form are Telstar and Roda in?
Telstar (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Telstar's attack rating (1.44) and Roda's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
68%
1.48
18%
5.60
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.52
1.07
Roda xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
9%
11.59
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
1%
79.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Telstar and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Telstar and 1.07 for Roda, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 16D 31L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.68 PPG from 68 outings (31W 21D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 14W 10D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Telstar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.30 points per game from 33 outings (10W 13D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.56 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Roda in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 21W 16D 31L in their last 68 games (1.16 PPG), while Roda have gone 31W 21D 16L in their last 68 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Roda away?
Telstar's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.58 PPG; Roda away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Telstar or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Roda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Roda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
1
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Telstar 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 58%, Roda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Telstar) and 48% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Telstar's games and 67% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Telstar's matches and 48% of Roda's.
Do Telstar and Roda tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Roda in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Roda 3-1 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.45 xG and Roda 1.07 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.44 / defence 0.79 against Roda attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 68% | Draw 18% | Roda 15%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 57%, Roda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.