Roda 2-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Willem II travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Roda, 1 for Willem II and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Willem II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Willem II in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus Willem II 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 54% | Willem II 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 0.96 xG and Willem II 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.734 / defence 1.043 | Willem II attack 0.976 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.311. Roda's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Willem II's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Roda games / 37 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 27% | Draw 28% | Willem II 45%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Willem II 2.22. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Roda 60% | Willem II 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 27% | Draw 28% | Willem II 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Roda 0.96 / Willem II 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.734 / def 1.043 | Willem II attack 0.976 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Willem II (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Willem II xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Willem II kick off?
Roda vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Willem II?
Roda 2 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Roda vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Willem II part of?
Roda vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 27% chance of winning, Willem II a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Roda and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Roda and Willem II in?
Roda (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Roda's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
27%
3.71
28%
3.60
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Roda xG
Total xG
2.29
1.33
Willem II xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.08
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Roda and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Roda and 1.33 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Roda have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 28W 17D 26L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Willem II's form line: 28W 16D 27L from 71 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.42 PPG, Willem II on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 8W 11D 16L from 35 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.38 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Willem II in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 28W 17D 26L in their last 71 games (1.42 PPG), while Willem II have gone 28W 16D 27L in their last 71 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Willem II away?
Roda's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.69 PPG; Willem II away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Roda's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Roda
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Roda 0-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, Willem II 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Roda) and 57% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 57% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Roda's matches and 57% of Willem II's.
Do Roda and Willem II tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Willem II in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Willem II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 38, as Roda and Willem II drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 0.96 xG and Willem II 1.33 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against Willem II attack 0.98 / defence 0.78, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 27% | Draw 28% | Willem II 45%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 54%, Willem II 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.42 PPG, Willem II 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.