Roda 0-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host NAC Breda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L. They are averaging 2.75 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 1W 2D 1L from 4 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D D L W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Roda) versus 1.25 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 75% and NAC Breda 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Roda 100% | NAC Breda 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.77 xG and NAC Breda 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.104 / defence 1.428 | NAC Breda attack 0.774 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.386. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Roda games / 4 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 43% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 34%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 75% | NAC Breda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 43% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Roda 1.77 / NAC Breda 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.104 / def 1.428 | NAC Breda attack 0.774 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Roda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.53
NAC Breda xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs NAC Breda kick off?
Roda vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs NAC Breda?
Roda 0 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Roda vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs NAC Breda part of?
Roda vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 43% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Roda and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and NAC Breda in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 W-L-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.10x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
43%
2.30
23%
4.37
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Roda xG
Total xG
3.30
1.53
NAC Breda xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Roda and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Roda and 1.53 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.50 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and NAC Breda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Roda
2
Draws
4
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, NAC Breda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Roda 0-5 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 75%, NAC Breda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Roda and 75% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Roda's games and 50% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Roda's matches and 75% of NAC Breda's.
Do Roda and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Roda and NAC Breda drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.77 xG and NAC Breda 1.53 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 1.8 short of their projected output. NAC Breda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.10 / defence 1.43 against NAC Breda attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 43% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 34%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 100%, NAC Breda 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.50 PPG, NAC Breda 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda managed 0 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.