Roda 2-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 2D 3L from 9 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.56 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.44 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Roda 1.56 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 44% versus Jong PSV U21 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Jong PSV U21 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.64 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.923 / defence 1.058 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.619 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.376. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Roda games / 9 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Jong PSV U21 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Roda (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 40% | Jong PSV U21 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Roda 1.64 / Jong PSV U21 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.923 / def 1.058 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.619 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Roda (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Jong PSV U21 xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Roda 2 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 55% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Roda and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Jong PSV U21 in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.92) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.07
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Roda xG
Total xG
2.54
0.90
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
4%
25.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Roda and 0.90 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Roda have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 4W 2D 3L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong PSV U21's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Roda have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Roda's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.75 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
3
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Roda 1-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 25%, Jong PSV U21 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Roda) and 50% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Roda's recent matches and 50% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Roda's recent games and 50% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Roda and Jong PSV U21 drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.64 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.90 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.62 / defence 1.34, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 55% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 21%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Jong PSV U21 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.