Roda 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Roda at 49%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Roda (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Roda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

FC Volendam have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

FC Volendam away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, FC Volendam are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 2.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Feb 2022, ended Roda 1–1 FC Volendam — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 56% and FC Volendam 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 52% | FC Volendam 72%). Note also that FC Volendam surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.83 xG and FC Volendam 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.048 / defence 0.696 | FC Volendam attack 1.300 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.429. FC Volendam have an above-average attack rating of 1.300, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Roda have a tight defence (rating 0.696), which is pulling FC Volendam's projected output down. Data: built from Roda's last 54 games and FC Volendam's last 16.

Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.02 | Draw 4.12 | FC Volendam 3.80. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 90% (last 10 away games).

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