Roda 0-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host FC OSS at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 6W 3D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.40 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Roda have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while FC OSS have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with Roda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | FC OSS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.96 xG and FC OSS 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.083 / defence 0.886 | FC OSS attack 0.890 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.415. Data: 39 Roda games / 39 FC OSS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 19%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | FC OSS 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Roda (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 60% | FC OSS 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Roda 1.96 / FC OSS 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.083 / def 0.886 | FC OSS attack 0.890 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Roda (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC OSS xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC OSS kick off?
Roda vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Roda 0 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Roda vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC OSS part of?
Roda vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 55% chance of winning, FC OSS a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Roda and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
Record (6 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Roda and FC OSS in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.08x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.94
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Roda xG
Total xG
3.08
1.12
FC OSS xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
3%
36.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Roda and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Roda and 1.12 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Roda have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 19W 12D 8L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS's form line: 11W 4D 24L from 39 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 2.26 PPG from 19 outings (13W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 2D 14L from 19 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.90 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 19W 12D 8L in their last 39 games (1.77 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 4D 24L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC OSS away?
Roda's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.26 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
2
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, FC OSS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC OSS?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 53%, FC OSS 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Roda) and 47% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC OSS in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Roda's recent matches and 37% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Roda's matches and 47% of FC OSS's.
Do Roda and FC OSS tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Roda and FC OSS drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.96 xG and FC OSS 1.12 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.08 / defence 0.89 against FC OSS attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Roda 55% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 19%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, FC OSS 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC OSS's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.