Roda 1-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 2W 2D 2L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 road games this term (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 54% versus Emmen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 64% | Emmen 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.09 xG and Emmen 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.975 / defence 1.131 | Emmen attack 0.856 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.432. Data: 11 Roda games / 11 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 30% | Draw 27% | Emmen 44%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Emmen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | Emmen 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 30% | Draw 27% | Emmen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Roda 1.09 / Emmen 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.975 / def 1.131 | Emmen attack 0.856 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Emmen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Emmen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Emmen kick off?
Roda vs Emmen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Emmen?
Roda 1 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Roda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Emmen part of?
Roda vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 30% chance of winning, Emmen a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Roda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Emmen in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Emmen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.97x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.86x) against Roda's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
30%
3.38
27%
3.73
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Roda xG
Total xG
2.48
1.39
Emmen xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Roda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Roda and 1.39 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 3D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (6W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Roda against 1.73 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.73 PPG overall record — Emmen travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.55 scored and 0.91 conceded. Roda's scoring rate against Emmen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Roda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Emmen in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Emmen have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.33 PPG; Emmen away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Roda or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Emmen in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Roda
2
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Emmen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Roda 2-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Emmen?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, Emmen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 50% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Roda's games and 67% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Roda's recent games and 50% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Emmen tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Emmen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Roda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Roda 1-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.09 xG and Emmen 1.39 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 30% | Draw 27% | Emmen 44%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 64%, Emmen 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.64 PPG, Emmen 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.