Roda 3-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 8 as Roda welcome De Graafschap to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 6W 2D 2L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Roda have won 2, De Graafschap 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus De Graafschap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | De Graafschap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.925 / defence 1.057 | De Graafschap attack 0.913 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.327. Data: 44 Roda games / 44 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 31%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Roda 1.55 / De Graafschap 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.925 / def 1.057 | De Graafschap attack 0.913 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Roda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.28
De Graafschap xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs De Graafschap kick off?
Roda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Roda 3 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs De Graafschap part of?
Roda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 44% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Roda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.93) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.02
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Roda xG
Total xG
2.83
1.28
De Graafschap xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Roda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Roda and 1.28 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 21W 15D 10L from 46 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 16L across 46 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.70 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 11W 7D 5L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 12W 3D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.30 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 21W 15D 10L in their last 46 games (1.70 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 16W 14D 16L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or De Graafschap away?
Roda's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.74 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Roda or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 56%, De Graafschap 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Roda and 65% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; De Graafschap in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Roda's recent matches and 52% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Roda's matches and 65% of De Graafschap's.
Do Roda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out De Graafschap 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat De Graafschap 3-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.28 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against De Graafschap attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 44% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, De Graafschap 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.70 PPG, De Graafschap 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.