Roda 1-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and ADO Den Haag meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
ADO Den Haag arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, ADO Den Haag in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus ADO Den Haag 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | ADO Den Haag 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.15 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.849 / defence 1.012 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.894 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.312. ADO Den Haag's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 Roda games / 69 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 35% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 37%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | ADO Den Haag 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Roda 60% | ADO Den Haag 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 35% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Roda 1.15 / ADO Den Haag 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.849 / def 1.012 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.894 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.19
ADO Den Haag xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Roda 1 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Roda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 35% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Roda and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.85x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (0.89x) against Roda's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.56
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Roda xG
Total xG
2.34
1.19
ADO Den Haag xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Roda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Roda and 1.19 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Roda have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 30W 18D 23L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 35W 18D 18L from 71 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Roda against 1.73 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 16W 9D 10L from 35 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.72 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 62%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 30W 18D 23L in their last 71 games (1.52 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 35W 18D 18L in their last 71 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
Roda's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.69 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 5-0 on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
3
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, ADO Den Haag 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 57% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; ADO Den Haag in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 57% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 57% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Roda and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 32, as Roda and ADO Den Haag drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.15 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.19 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.89 / defence 0.79, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 35% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 37%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, ADO Den Haag 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.52 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.