Roda 5-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and ADO Den Haag meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
ADO Den Haag have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
ADO Den Haag arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 62% versus ADO Den Haag 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 62% | ADO Den Haag 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.23 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.981 / defence 1.064 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.065 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.503. Data: 22 Roda games / 21 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 27% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 48%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 2.08. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | ADO Den Haag 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 27% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Roda 1.23 / ADO Den Haag 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.981 / def 1.064 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.065 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.70
ADO Den Haag xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Roda 5 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Roda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 27% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Roda and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.98x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.06x) against Roda's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
27%
3.73
26%
3.92
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Roda xG
Total xG
2.93
1.70
ADO Den Haag xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
5%
20.46
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Roda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Roda and 1.70 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Roda have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 9W 7D 5L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 15W 2D 4L from 21 games, 2.24 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Roda.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.38 scored and 1.14 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 games (1.62 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 15W 2D 4L in their last 21 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.60 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Roda or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 5-0 on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
3
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, ADO Den Haag 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 60% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; ADO Den Haag in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 50% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Roda's matches and 60% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Roda and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 5-0 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat ADO Den Haag 5-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.23 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.70 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ADO Den Haag landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 27% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 48%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 62%, ADO Den Haag 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.62. Form was overturned, with Roda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.