NAC Breda 3-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees VVV Venlo travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 April 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 6D 0L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
VVV Venlo — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
NAC Breda are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for VVV Venlo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
VVV Venlo trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 42% versus VVV Venlo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 48% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.16 xG and VVV Venlo 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.925 / defence 0.699 | VVV Venlo attack 0.807 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.414. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 NAC Breda games / 33 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 44% | Draw 31% | VVV Venlo 25%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | VVV Venlo 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 40% | VVV Venlo 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 44% | Draw 31% | VVV Venlo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG NAC Breda 1.16 / VVV Venlo 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.925 / def 0.699 | VVV Venlo attack 0.807 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.80
VVV Venlo xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo kick off?
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
NAC Breda 3 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo part of?
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 44% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both NAC Breda and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.93x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.23
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
1.95
0.80
VVV Venlo xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.80 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 13W 10D 10L from 33 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 16L across 33 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.48 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 8W 7D 1L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 6W 2D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.21 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 13W 10D 10L in their last 33 games (1.48 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 12W 5D 16L in their last 33 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or VVV Venlo away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.94 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.25 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when NAC Breda 1-0 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 44%, VVV Venlo 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (NAC Breda) and 56% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 38%; VVV Venlo in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 31% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of NAC Breda's recent games and 56% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat VVV Venlo 3-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.16 xG and VVV Venlo 0.80 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.93 / defence 0.70 against VVV Venlo attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 44% | Draw 31% | VVV Venlo 25%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 48%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.48 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.