NAC Breda 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NAC Breda at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Jong AZ travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 August 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 6W 1D 3L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.40 (Jong AZ). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for NAC Breda, 1 for Jong AZ and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2023, ended 5–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 72% and Jong AZ 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 69% | Jong AZ 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.81 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.064 / defence 1.098 | Jong AZ attack 1.012 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.248. Data: 39 NAC Breda games / 39 Jong AZ games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 48% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 29%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Jong AZ 3.45. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 48% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG NAC Breda 1.81 / Jong AZ 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.064 / def 1.098 | Jong AZ attack 1.012 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Jong AZ xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong AZ kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
NAC Breda 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 48% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 3W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.06x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.37
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.20
1.39
Jong AZ xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
5%
20.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.39 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 17W 6D 16L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ's form line: 15W 9D 15L from 39 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.46 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 6W 2D 11L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.56 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 17W 6D 16L in their last 39 games (1.46 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong AZ away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.58 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
0
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, Jong AZ have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 68%, Jong AZ 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (NAC Breda) and 58% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of NAC Breda's games and 53% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of NAC Breda's matches and 58% of Jong AZ's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.81 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.06 / defence 1.10 against Jong AZ attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 48% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 29%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 69%, Jong AZ 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.46 PPG, Jong AZ 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.