NAC Breda 0-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host FC Eindhoven at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 3D 1L from 9 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.50 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 0, FC Eindhoven 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus FC Eindhoven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 55% | FC Eindhoven 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.62 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.076 / defence 0.856 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.836 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.553. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 NAC Breda games / 20 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 26%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | FC Eindhoven 3.85. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 56% | FC Eindhoven 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG NAC Breda 1.62 / FC Eindhoven 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.076 / def 0.856 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.836 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Eindhoven xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
NAC Breda 0 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 49% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (1.08) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.05
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.73
1.11
FC Eindhoven xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
5%
19.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.11 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 20 games, going 7W 6D 7L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.35 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 5W 3D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.70 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
NAC Breda's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.78 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 56%, FC Eindhoven 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (NAC Breda) and 44% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 33% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of NAC Breda's recent games and 44% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NAC Breda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven finished level at 0-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.62 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.11 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 1.29, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 49% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 26%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 55%, FC Eindhoven 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.35 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.