NAC Breda 2-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host FC Eindhoven at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
NAC Breda are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Eindhoven 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 70% and FC Eindhoven 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 66% | FC Eindhoven 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.48 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.889 / defence 0.915 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.101 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.300. Data: 61 NAC Breda games / 62 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 40% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 32%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | FC Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 40% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG NAC Breda 1.48 / FC Eindhoven 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.889 / def 0.915 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.101 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Eindhoven xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
NAC Breda 2 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 40% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.89) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.58
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.79
1.31
FC Eindhoven xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.31 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 64 games, going 29W 10D 25L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.44 PPG from 64 outings (24W 20D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.52 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 15W 6D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.29 points per game from 31 outings (10W 10D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.41 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 29W 10D 25L in their last 64 games (1.52 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 24W 20D 20L in their last 64 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.65 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 68%, FC Eindhoven 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (NAC Breda) and 48% (FC Eindhoven).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of NAC Breda's games and 58% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of NAC Breda's recent games and 48% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.48 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.31 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 40% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 32%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 66%, FC Eindhoven 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.52 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.