NAC Breda vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 44%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this NAC Breda vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 3W 3D 4L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Den Bosch (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. NAC Breda's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, NAC Breda have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Den Bosch managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NAC Breda and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 50% and Den Bosch 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | Den Bosch 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.81 xG and Den Bosch 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.868 / defence 1.209 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 4 NAC Breda games / 42 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 44%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.86 | Draw 4.76 | Den Bosch 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 40% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG NAC Breda 1.81 / Den Bosch 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.868 / def 1.209 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Den Bosch xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Den Bosch kick off?
NAC Breda vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch part of?
NAC Breda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 35% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 44% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both NAC Breda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 4W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Den Bosch in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.00x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
35%
2.87
21%
4.77
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.87
2.05
Den Bosch xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
13%
7.78
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
4%
22.33
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for NAC Breda and 2.05 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 8W 12D 18L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch's form line: 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.18 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 5W 3D 10L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.61 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch in 79%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Den Bosch away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.11 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 3 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
1
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 44%, Den Bosch 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (NAC Breda) and 78% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of NAC Breda's games and 78% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of NAC Breda's matches and 78% of Den Bosch's.
Do NAC Breda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.