NAC Breda 1-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NAC Breda face Cambuur.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Cambuur travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Monday 19 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, NAC Breda stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cambuur — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Cambuur have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.20 (Cambuur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Cambuur and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Oct 2023, ended NAC Breda 3–2 Cambuur — a NAC Breda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Cambuur in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 70% and Cambuur 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 66% | Cambuur 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.67 xG and Cambuur 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.902 / defence 0.971 | Cambuur attack 1.303 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.309. Cambuur have an above-average attack rating of 1.303, which lifts their away xG to 1.66. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 63 games and Cambuur's last 25.

Result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 37%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.67 | Draw 3.90 | Cambuur 2.71. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — NAC Breda 37% and Cambuur 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 70% (last 10 home games) | Cambuur 100% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights