NAC Breda 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 2D 1L from 8 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Almere City FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. NAC Breda's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Almere City FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 44% versus Almere City FC 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Almere City FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.15 xG and Almere City FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.141 / defence 0.825 | Almere City FC attack 0.919 / defence 1.572. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.572 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 NAC Breda games / 18 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 60% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 20%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Almere City FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | Almere City FC 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 60% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG NAC Breda 2.15 / Almere City FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.141 / def 0.825 | Almere City FC attack 0.919 / def 1.572 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Almere City FC xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Almere City FC kick off?
NAC Breda vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC part of?
NAC Breda vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 60% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both NAC Breda and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Almere City FC in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.92x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
60%
1.68
20%
4.93
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.33
1.17
Almere City FC xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
2%
43.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 5D 6L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
NAC Breda's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.67 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 72%.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 4W 4D 10L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Almere City FC away?
NAC Breda's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 2.12 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Almere City FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for NAC Breda and 75% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 75% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of NAC Breda's matches and 75% of Almere City FC's.
Do NAC Breda and Almere City FC tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as NAC Breda and Almere City FC drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 2.15 xG and Almere City FC 1.17 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.14 / defence 0.82 against Almere City FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.57, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 60% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 20%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 56%, Almere City FC 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.