MVV 0-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and Roda meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Geusselt, MVV have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Roda (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Roda arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Roda hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 3–2 with MVV winning.
It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 49% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 56% | Roda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.75 xG and Roda 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.030 / defence 1.196 | Roda attack 0.937 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.473. Data: 55 MVV games / 55 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 41% | Draw 23% | Roda 37%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on MVV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 41% | Draw 23% | Roda 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG MVV 1.75 / Roda 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.030 / def 1.196 | Roda attack 0.937 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: MVV (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Roda xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Roda kick off?
MVV vs Roda kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Roda?
MVV 0 - 0 Roda.
Where is MVV vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Roda part of?
MVV vs Roda is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 41% chance of winning, Roda a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both MVV and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Roda?
Record (8 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 5W.
What form are MVV and Roda in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.03) and Roda's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.94x) against MVV's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
41%
2.46
23%
4.42
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
MVV xG
Total xG
3.40
1.65
Roda xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are MVV and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for MVV and 1.65 for Roda, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 55 games, going 14W 13D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.38 PPG from 55 outings (20W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for MVV against 1.38 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 12W 4D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Roda in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 14W 13D 28L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while Roda have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Roda away?
MVV's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.48 PPG; Roda away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
MVV
3
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 1, Roda have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Roda 2-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 59%, Roda 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for MVV and 67% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of MVV's games and 70% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of MVV's matches and 67% of Roda's.
Do MVV and Roda tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Roda in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at MVV's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 18, as MVV and Roda drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.75 xG and Roda 1.65 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. MVV fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Roda landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against Roda attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 41% | Draw 23% | Roda 37%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 56%, Roda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.00 PPG, Roda 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.