MVV 1-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 38%, yet in-form MVV provide a compelling counter-argument — this MVV vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as MVV welcome De Graafschap to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Eerste Divisie matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV carry the stronger recent momentum — 3.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). MVV's 0% and De Graafschap's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 0.96 xG and De Graafschap 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.212. Data: 1 MVV games / 1 De Graafschap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: MVV 27% | Draw 34% | De Graafschap 38%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | De Graafschap 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form MVV (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 27% | Draw 34% | De Graafschap 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG MVV 0.96 / De Graafschap 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.19
De Graafschap xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs De Graafschap kick off?
MVV vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 August 2021 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
MVV 1 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is MVV vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs De Graafschap part of?
MVV vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 27% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both MVV and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in?
MVV (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. De Graafschap (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.98x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.91
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
MVV xG
Total xG
2.15
1.19
De Graafschap xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are MVV and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for MVV and 1.19 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, MVV have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, MVV are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against De Graafschap.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 0%.
Defensively: MVV have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have MVV or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
MVV
4
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, De Graafschap have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between MVV and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of MVV's recent matches and 0% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of MVV's recent games and 100% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do MVV and De Graafschap tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat MVV 1-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 0.96 xG and De Graafschap 1.19 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it MVV 27% | Draw 34% | De Graafschap 38%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 0%, De Graafschap 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with De Graafschap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. MVV shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.