Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 22 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Jong Utrecht. A 0.50 PPG lead over Roda (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Roda in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Roda have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Jong Utrecht's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 59% versus Roda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 59% | Roda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.58 xG and Roda 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.991 / defence 1.078 | Roda attack 0.944 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.511. Data: 58 Jong Utrecht games / 58 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Roda lead the H2H ledger, but Jong Utrecht carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 70% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 22 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.58 / Roda 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.991 / def 1.078 | Roda attack 0.944 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Roda xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Roda kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 December 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 3 Roda.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Roda part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 6W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Roda in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.99) and Roda's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.94x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
39%
2.56
24%
4.19
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.12
1.54
Roda xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.54 for Roda, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 11W 16D 31L from 58 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 20L across 58 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 7W 9D 13L from 29 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 9W 8D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.41 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 16D 31L in their last 58 games (0.84 PPG), while Roda have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.03 PPG; Roda away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
7
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, Roda have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 59%, Roda 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Jong Utrecht and 66% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Jong Utrecht's games and 69% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 66% of Roda's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Roda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Utrecht 1-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.58 xG and Roda 1.54 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Roda attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 59%, Roda 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.