Jong Utrecht 0-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates MVV at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht and MVV meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.87 xG and MVV 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | MVV attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.259. Data: 0 Jong Utrecht games / 0 MVV games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 22% | Draw 37% | MVV 41%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 4.55 | Draw 2.70 | MVV 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on MVV if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 22% | Draw 37% | MVV 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.87 / MVV 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | MVV attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: MVV (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.23
MVV xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs MVV kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs MVV?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 1 MVV.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs MVV part of?
Jong Utrecht vs MVV is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 22% chance of winning, MVV a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jong Utrecht and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and MVV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and MVV in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.85x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.85x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
22%
4.51
37%
2.69
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.10
1.23
MVV xG
4.51
22%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
15.42
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.1 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.23 for MVV, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Pre-Season
MVV
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: MVV won 5-0 on 18 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 4, MVV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when MVV 2-2 Jong Utrecht.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Jong Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Jong Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.87 xG and MVV 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against MVV attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 22% | Draw 37% | MVV 41%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.