Jong Utrecht 2-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 5 as Jong Utrecht welcome Jong PSV U21 to Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Utrecht 1.60 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 40% versus Jong PSV U21 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jong Utrecht 40% | Jong PSV U21 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.18 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.854 / defence 1.006 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.683 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.390. Data: 5 Jong Utrecht games / 5 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 29% | Jong PSV U21 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Jong PSV U21 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 40% | Jong PSV U21 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4 • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 29% | Jong PSV U21 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.18 / Jong PSV U21 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.854 / def 1.006 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.683 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Jong PSV U21 xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong Utrecht 2 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 41% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.85) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.40
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.13
0.95
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.95 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 1.60 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 60%.
Defensively: Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Jong Utrecht or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
5
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 40%, Jong PSV U21 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jong Utrecht) and 40% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 60% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 40% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out Jong PSV U21 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Jong PSV U21 2-1 at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.18 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.95 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.68 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 29% | Jong PSV U21 30%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 40%, Jong PSV U21 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 1.60 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.