Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Almere City FC (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Utrecht face Almere City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Almere City FC at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Almere City FC are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Almere City FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Jong Utrecht's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Almere City FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Almere City FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 65% and Almere City FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 65% | Almere City FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.25 xG and Almere City FC 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.905 / defence 1.346 | Almere City FC attack 1.178 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Jong Utrecht games / 42 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 15% | Draw 16% | Almere City FC 68%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 6.67 | Draw 6.25 | Almere City FC 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 2.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 70% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 15% | Draw 16% | Almere City FC 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 66% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.25 / Almere City FC 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.905 / def 1.346 | Almere City FC attack 1.178 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.69
Almere City FC xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 15% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 68% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 5W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 2.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
15%
6.46
16%
6.06
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.94
2.69
Almere City FC xG
6.46
15%
Home win
6.06
16%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
7%
14.76
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
1%
95.42
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 2.69 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 10D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 43 outings (22W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (10W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.07 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 15L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.38 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Almere City FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
5
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Almere City FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 2-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Utrecht at 71%, Almere City FC at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Jong Utrecht and 71% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Jong Utrecht's games and 76% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 71% of Almere City FC's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.