Jong PSV U21 vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 45%, yet in-form Roda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong PSV U21 vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Roda at De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at De Herdgang this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Roda have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Jong PSV U21.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Roda in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 65% and Roda 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 63% | Roda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.19 xG and Roda 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.894 / defence 0.856 | Roda attack 0.629 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Roda's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Jong PSV U21 games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 45% | Draw 30% | Roda 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Roda 4.17. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 19 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 45% | Draw 30% | Roda 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.19 / Roda 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.894 / def 0.856 | Roda attack 0.629 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Roda xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 19 April 2027 at De Herdgang.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 45% chance of winning, Roda a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Record (10 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 3 | Roda 5W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.89) and Roda's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.31
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
1.98
0.79
Roda xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 0.79 for Roda, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 49 games, going 20W 9D 20L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.43 PPG from 49 outings (17W 19D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.41 PPG, Roda on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 12W 5D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.68 points per game from 25 outings (11W 9D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.41 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Roda in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 9D 20L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 19D 13L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.64 PPG; Roda away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Roda have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Roda 1-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 56%, Roda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jong PSV U21) and 56% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jong PSV U21's games and 64% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 56% of Roda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Roda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.