Jong PSV U21 3-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 42%, yet in-form PEC Zwolle provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle meet at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
PEC Zwolle's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PEC Zwolle arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong PSV U21 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 2–4 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 65% versus PEC Zwolle 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 65% | PEC Zwolle 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.81 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.082 / defence 1.111 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.127 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.326. Data: 73 Jong PSV U21 games / 35 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 42% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | PEC Zwolle 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 90% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 42% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.81 / PEC Zwolle 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.082 / def 1.111 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.127 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.66
PEC Zwolle xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 42% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.13x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
42%
2.38
22%
4.48
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.47
1.66
PEC Zwolle xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.66 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 21W 18D 30L from 69 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 32W 10D 27L across 69 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.54 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 13W 8D 13L from 34 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 15W 3D 16L across 34 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 21W 18D 30L in their last 69 games (1.17 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 32W 10D 27L in their last 69 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.38 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Jong PSV U21 3-1 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 62%, PEC Zwolle 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong PSV U21 and 53% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 32%; PEC Zwolle in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 38% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 53% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat PEC Zwolle 3-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.81 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.66 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 42% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 36%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 65%, PEC Zwolle 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.17 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.