Jong PSV U21 0-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Jong PSV U21 welcome Jong Utrecht to PSV Campus De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Jong PSV U21 are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 56% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 60% | Jong Utrecht 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.07 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.296 / defence 0.944 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.705 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.427. Jong PSV U21 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Jong PSV U21 games / 25 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 63% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 16%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Utrecht 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 63% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.07 / Jong Utrecht 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.296 / def 0.944 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.705 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Jong Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 February 2022 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Jong PSV U21 0 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 63% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 1.30x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.77
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.02
0.95
Jong Utrecht xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
2%
48.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 0.95 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 10W 5D 10L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 7W 4D 14L from 25 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.40 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Jong PSV U21 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.08 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.92 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 58%, Jong Utrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Jong PSV U21 and 67% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jong PSV U21's games and 67% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 67% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Jong PSV U21 0-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.07 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.95 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.30 / defence 0.94 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.70 / defence 1.35, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 63% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 16%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 60%, Jong Utrecht 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.40 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.