Jong PSV U21 1-4 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Volendam travel to PSV Campus De Herdgang to take on Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jong PSV U21 have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, FC Volendam have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Volendam are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Jong PSV U21, 1 for FC Volendam and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2022, ended Jong PSV U21 2–2 FC Volendam — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
FC Volendam trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 65% and FC Volendam 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 75% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.86 xG and FC Volendam 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.009 / defence 1.356 | FC Volendam attack 1.243 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong PSV U21's projected output up. FC Volendam have an above-average attack rating of 1.243, which lifts their away xG to 2.34. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.356 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Volendam's projected output up. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 52 games and FC Volendam's last 14.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 31% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 49%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.24 | Draw 4.94 | FC Volendam 2.05. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 77% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% — both xG figures (1.86 / 2.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 16 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 31% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 77% (No 23%) | xG Jong PSV U21 1.86 / FC Volendam 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.009 / def 1.356 | FC Volendam attack 1.243 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.34
FC Volendam xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 4 FC Volendam.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 31% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 49% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.01) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 2.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong PSV U21's last 52 games and FC Volendam's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
31%
3.24
20%
4.94
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
4.20
2.34
FC Volendam xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.27
Clean Sheet
10%
10.39
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
3%
33.67
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.34 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 12W 9D 27L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 12W 9D 27L from 48 games, 0.94 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 0.94 PPG, FC Volendam on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 0.78 PPG from their last 23 home games (4W 6D 13L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 4W 7D 12L from their last 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.38 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 67%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
Jong PSV U21 (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong PSV U21
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 12W 9D 27L in their last 48 games (0.94 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 9D 27L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.78 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 10 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2025, when FC Volendam won FC Volendam 4-0 Jong PSV U21.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2026: Jong PSV U21 3-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 74%, FC Volendam at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Jong PSV U21 and 74% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Jong PSV U21's games and 83% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 74% of FC Volendam's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 83% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong PSV U21 1-4 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.86 xG and FC Volendam 2.34 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 2.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.01 / defence 1.36 against FC Volendam attack 1.24 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 31% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 49%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.94 PPG, FC Volendam 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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