Jong PSV U21 1-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 34%, yet in-form Emmen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Emmen at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 7 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at Jan Louwers Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Emmen — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jong PSV U21, 1 for Emmen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 56% versus Emmen 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 59% | Emmen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.00 xG and Emmen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.149 / defence 1.029 | Emmen attack 0.692 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.400. Emmen's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Jong PSV U21 games / 27 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 34% | Draw 32% | Emmen 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Emmen 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | Emmen 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 34% | Draw 32% | Emmen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.00 / Emmen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.149 / def 1.029 | Emmen attack 0.692 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Emmen xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 3 Emmen.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 34% chance of winning, Emmen a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.15) and Emmen's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
34%
2.95
32%
3.09
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.00
1.00
Emmen xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.00 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 10W 5D 12L from 27 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 4D 6L across 27 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 7W 2D 5L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 8W 4D 2L across 14 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.52 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 games (1.30 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 4D 6L in their last 27 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.64 PPG; Emmen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Emmen in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2024, when Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Emmen have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 50%, Emmen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jong PSV U21) and 36% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Emmen in 43%; Jong PSV U21 have failed to score in 29% of games; Emmen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 43% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Jong PSV U21's recent games and 36% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Emmen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong PSV U21 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.00 xG and Emmen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against Emmen attack 0.69 / defence 0.74, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 34% | Draw 32% | Emmen 34%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 59%, Emmen 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.