Jong AZ 6-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 12 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jong AZ haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 6W 1D 3L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.70 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Jong AZ 2W, Roda 3W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Roda — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 68% and Roda 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 71% | Roda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.68 xG and Roda 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.122 / defence 1.018 | Roda attack 1.052 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.413. Data: 38 Jong AZ games / 38 Roda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 27% | Roda 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 70% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 12 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 27% | Roda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong AZ 1.68 / Roda 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.122 / def 1.018 | Roda attack 1.052 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Roda xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Roda kick off?
Jong AZ vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 August 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Jong AZ 6 - 1 Roda.
Where is Jong AZ vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Roda part of?
Jong AZ vs Roda is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 40% chance of winning, Roda a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong AZ and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 1 | Roda 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.05x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.69
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.19
1.51
Roda xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.51 for Roda, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong AZ come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 8D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. Jong AZ haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.82 PPG from 38 outings (19W 12D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. Roda haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.82 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong AZ's home form reads 12W 2D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (6W 8D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Roda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.66 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Pre-Season
Roda
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Roda have gone 19W 12D 7L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Roda away?
Jong AZ's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 2.00 PPG; Roda away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jong AZ have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 6-1 on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
2
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 5, Roda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Roda?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 53%, Roda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Jong AZ) and 37% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Roda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Jong AZ's games and 58% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Jong AZ's recent games and 37% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Roda tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Roda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Roda 6-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.68 xG and Roda 1.51 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Roda attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 40% | Draw 27% | Roda 33%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 71%, Roda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.47 PPG, Roda 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.