Jong AZ 1-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 5W 2D 3L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Roda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.70 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Jong AZ 1W, Roda 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Roda — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 61% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 62% | Roda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.50 xG and Roda 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.156 / defence 1.023 | Roda attack 0.862 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.311. Data: 61 Jong AZ games / 61 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 43% | Draw 30% | Roda 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Roda 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 40% | Roda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 5 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 43% | Draw 30% | Roda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Jong AZ 1.50 / Roda 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.156 / def 1.023 | Roda attack 0.862 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Roda xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Roda kick off?
Jong AZ vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 5 February 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Jong AZ 1 - 0 Roda.
Where is Jong AZ vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Roda part of?
Jong AZ vs Roda is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 43% chance of winning, Roda a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jong AZ and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 1 | Roda 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.86x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.39
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.65
1.16
Roda xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
6%
16.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.16 for Roda, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong AZ come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 14D 24L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (24W 15D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.43 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong AZ's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.41 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 23W 14D 24L in their last 61 games (1.36 PPG), while Roda have gone 24W 15D 22L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Roda away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.70 PPG; Roda away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jong AZ have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 6-1 on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
2
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 5, Roda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Roda?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 57%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jong AZ) and 43% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Roda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 50% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Jong AZ's recent games and 43% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Roda tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Roda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong AZ edge out Roda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Roda 1-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.50 xG and Roda 1.16 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Roda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against Roda attack 0.86 / defence 0.80, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 43% | Draw 30% | Roda 27%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 62%, Roda 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.36 PPG, Roda 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.