Jong AZ 0-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Excelsior meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 4W 2D 3L this season (9 games, 1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 7W 0D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Excelsior arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Excelsior — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 41% versus Excelsior 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 35% | Excelsior 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 0.85 xG and Excelsior 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.630 / defence 0.811 | Excelsior attack 1.376 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.531. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Excelsior have an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Jong AZ games / 17 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 18% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 58%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Excelsior 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 44% | Excelsior 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 18% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Jong AZ 0.85 / Excelsior 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.630 / def 0.811 | Excelsior attack 1.376 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Excelsior xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Excelsior kick off?
Jong AZ vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Excelsior?
Jong AZ 0 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Jong AZ vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Excelsior part of?
Jong AZ vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 18% chance of winning, Excelsior a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jong AZ and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Excelsior in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Excelsior (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.38x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
18%
5.41
24%
4.20
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.56
1.71
Excelsior xG
5.41
18%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
3%
29.86
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.71 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 6W 3D 8L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 11W 2D 4L from 17 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong AZ.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 7W 0D 2L from 9 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.53 scored and 1.41 conceded. Excelsior's attacking output running into Jong AZ's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 11W 2D 4L in their last 17 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.56 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
1
Draws
2
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, Excelsior have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Jong AZ 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 44%, Excelsior 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Jong AZ) and 78% (Excelsior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 33%; Jong AZ have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Jong AZ's games and 67% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Jong AZ's matches and 78% of Excelsior's.
Do Jong AZ and Excelsior tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Jong AZ 0-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 0.85 xG and Excelsior 1.71 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.63 / defence 0.81 against Excelsior attack 1.38 / defence 1.12, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 18% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 58%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 35%, Excelsior 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Excelsior's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.