Helmond Sport 1-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helmond Sport and Roda meet at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helmond Sport's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 4W 2D 4L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Helmond Sport, 2 for Roda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Helmond Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 51% versus Roda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 57% | Roda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.19 xG and Roda 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.802 / defence 1.081 | Roda attack 0.927 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.265. Data: 61 Helmond Sport games / 61 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 35% | Draw 27% | Roda 38%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 60% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 35% | Draw 27% | Roda 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Helmond Sport 1.19 / Roda 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.802 / def 1.081 | Roda attack 0.927 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Roda (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Roda xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Roda kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Helmond Sport 1 - 0 Roda.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Roda part of?
Helmond Sport vs Roda is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 35% chance of winning, Roda a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Helmond Sport and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Roda?
Record (3 meetings): Helmond Sport 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 2W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Roda in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.80x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.93x) against Helmond Sport's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
35%
2.90
27%
3.67
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.46
1.27
Roda xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.27 for Roda, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 14W 11D 36L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 27W 17D 17L from 61 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
On the road, Roda have gone 11W 9D 10L from 30 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.79 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Roda in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 14W 11D 36L in their last 61 games (0.87 PPG), while Roda have gone 27W 17D 17L in their last 61 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.00 PPG; Roda away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 5 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Roda 1-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 60%, Roda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Helmond Sport and 57% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Helmond Sport's games and 57% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Helmond Sport's matches and 57% of Roda's.
Do Helmond Sport and Roda tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Roda in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat Roda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Roda 1-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.19 xG and Roda 1.27 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Roda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Roda attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 35% | Draw 27% | Roda 38%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Helmond Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 57%, Roda 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Helmond Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.