Helmond Sport 0-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 55%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Helmond Sport welcome NAC Breda to Lavans Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Lavans Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Helmond Sport, 2 for NAC Breda and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Helmond Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
NAC Breda trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 61% versus NAC Breda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 59% | NAC Breda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 2.30 xG and NAC Breda 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.104 / defence 0.964 | NAC Breda attack 1.117 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.901 / away 1.423. Data: 48 Helmond Sport games / 10 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 55% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 25%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | NAC Breda 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Helmond Sport (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helmond Sport are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.83 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 80% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lavans Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 55% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Helmond Sport 2.30 / NAC Breda 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.104 / def 0.964 | NAC Breda attack 1.117 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.901 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.53
NAC Breda xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda kick off?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Lavans Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Helmond Sport 0 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Lavans Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda part of?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 55% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Helmond Sport and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): Helmond Sport 2W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 1.10x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
55%
1.82
20%
5.04
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.83
1.53
NAC Breda xG
1.82
55%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
3%
39.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.53 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.05 PPG from 44 outings (11W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.00 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 9W 8D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (3W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or NAC Breda away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.59 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Helmond Sport won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
From 7 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Helmond Sport 0-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 77%, NAC Breda at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Helmond Sport and 68% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Helmond Sport's games and 59% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Helmond Sport's matches and 68% of NAC Breda's.
Do Helmond Sport and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Helmond Sport 0-2 at Lavans Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 2.30 xG and NAC Breda 1.53 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against NAC Breda attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 55% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 25%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 59%, NAC Breda 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NAC Breda's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.00 PPG, NAC Breda 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.