Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees FC OSS travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 3D 4L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helmond Sport 0.90 PPG, FC OSS 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Helmond Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC OSS trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 63% versus FC OSS 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 64% | FC OSS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.45 xG and FC OSS 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.955 / defence 1.050 | FC OSS attack 0.719 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.455. Data: 67 Helmond Sport games / 67 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 45% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 28%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | FC OSS 3.57. Helmond Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 80% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 45% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Helmond Sport 1.45 / FC OSS 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.955 / def 1.050 | FC OSS attack 0.719 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC OSS xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Helmond Sport 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 45% chance of winning, FC OSS a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
Record (9 meetings): Helmond Sport 2W | Draws 4 | FC OSS 3W.
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.95) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.63
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.55
1.10
FC OSS xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.10 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 67 games, going 21W 15D 31L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.97 PPG from 67 outings (14W 23D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.16 PPG, FC OSS on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 14W 8D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.76 points per game from 33 outings (3W 16D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.99 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 21W 15D 31L in their last 67 games (1.16 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 14W 23D 30L in their last 67 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC OSS away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.52 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
5
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 67%, FC OSS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Helmond Sport) and 33% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Helmond Sport's games and 46% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 33% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and FC OSS tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.45 xG and FC OSS 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against FC OSS attack 0.72 / defence 0.91, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 45% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 28%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 64%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.16 PPG, FC OSS 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.