Helmond Sport 1-5 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Excelsior make the trip to SolarUnie Stadion to face Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helmond Sport have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at SolarUnie Stadion this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Excelsior (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Excelsior have posted 6W 0D 2L from 8 away outings — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.38 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Excelsior are 1.00 PPG clear of Helmond Sport in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 40% versus Excelsior 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 53% | Excelsior 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 0.94 xG and Excelsior 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.673 / defence 1.070 | Excelsior attack 1.232 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.555. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Excelsior have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Helmond Sport games / 15 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 16% | Draw 20% | Excelsior 63%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Excelsior 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 38% | Excelsior 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 16% | Draw 20% | Excelsior 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Helmond Sport 0.94 / Excelsior 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.673 / def 1.070 | Excelsior attack 1.232 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Excelsior xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Excelsior kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Excelsior?
Helmond Sport 1 - 5 Excelsior.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Excelsior part of?
Helmond Sport vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 16% chance of winning, Excelsior a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Helmond Sport and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helmond Sport and Excelsior in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Excelsior (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.67) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.23x) against Helmond Sport's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
16%
6.13
20%
4.88
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.99
2.05
Excelsior xG
6.13
16%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
13%
7.78
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
2%
47.67
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 2.05 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Helmond Sport come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 3D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Helmond Sport's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 2.25 points per game from 8 outings (6W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.25 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Excelsior in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 1-5 on 19 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 0, Excelsior have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Excelsior 1-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helmond Sport see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 38%, Excelsior 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Helmond Sport and 75% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Excelsior in 38%; Helmond Sport have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 62% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Helmond Sport's matches and 75% of Excelsior's.
Do Helmond Sport and Excelsior tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Helmond Sport 1-5 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 0.94 xG and Excelsior 2.05 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 2.05 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.67 / defence 1.07 against Excelsior attack 1.23 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 16% | Draw 20% | Excelsior 63%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 53%, Excelsior 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.