Helmond Sport 1-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Helmond Sport host Almere City FC at SolarUnie Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's home record at SolarUnie Stadion: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SolarUnie Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Helmond Sport have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 42% and Almere City FC 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 50% | Almere City FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.33 xG and Almere City FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.770 / defence 0.929 | Almere City FC attack 0.840 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.469. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Helmond Sport games / 12 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Almere City FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 33% | Almere City FC 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Helmond Sport 1.33 / Almere City FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.770 / def 0.929 | Almere City FC attack 0.840 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Almere City FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Helmond Sport 1 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC part of?
Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 41% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Helmond Sport and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helmond Sport and Almere City FC in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Helmond Sport's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.71
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.48
1.15
Almere City FC xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.15 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 7L across 12 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Helmond Sport by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.75 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Almere City FC away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.67 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Helmond Sport go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2022, when Almere City FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 3, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Almere City FC 0-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Almere City FC?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 33%, Almere City FC 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Helmond Sport) and 67% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Helmond Sport have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Helmond Sport's games and 83% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Helmond Sport's matches and 67% of Almere City FC's.
Do Helmond Sport and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Helmond Sport 1-2 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.33 xG and Almere City FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.77 / defence 0.93 against Almere City FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.35, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 50%, Almere City FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.