FC Volendam 2-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Telstar travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022, 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC Volendam have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 1, Telstar 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2021, ended 5–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Telstar trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 70% and Telstar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 75% | Telstar 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.00 xG and Telstar 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.402 / defence 1.110 | Telstar attack 0.688 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.542. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 FC Volendam games / 20 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 56% | Draw 22% | Telstar 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Telstar 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Telstar 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 56% | Draw 22% | Telstar 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Volendam 2.00 / Telstar 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.402 / def 1.110 | Telstar attack 0.688 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.542 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Telstar xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Telstar kick off?
FC Volendam vs Telstar kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Telstar?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 Telstar.
Where is FC Volendam vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Telstar part of?
FC Volendam vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 56% chance of winning, Telstar a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Volendam and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Telstar?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Telstar in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Telstar (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.63
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.18
1.18
Telstar xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
3%
33.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.18 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 20 games, going 13W 6D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (4W 8D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 7W 2D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.10 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Telstar in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Telstar in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 6D 1L in their last 20 games (2.25 PPG), while Telstar have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Telstar away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.30 PPG; Telstar away: 1.30 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Telstar in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2021, when FC Volendam won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Telstar?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 70%, Telstar 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for FC Volendam and 50% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 50% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of FC Volendam's matches and 50% of Telstar's.
Do FC Volendam and Telstar tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Telstar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Telstar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Telstar 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.00 xG and Telstar 1.18 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.40 / defence 1.11 against Telstar attack 0.69 / defence 1.24, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 56% | Draw 22% | Telstar 22%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 75%, Telstar 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.