FC OSS 1-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees VVV Venlo travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 August 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 5W 1D 4L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, VVV Venlo have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC OSS) versus 1.40 (VVV Venlo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC OSS, 0 for VVV Venlo and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 58% versus VVV Venlo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 63% | VVV Venlo 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.75 xG and VVV Venlo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.093 / defence 0.864 | VVV Venlo attack 1.052 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.434. Data: 41 FC OSS games / 41 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 48% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 29%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | VVV Venlo 3.45. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 60% | VVV Venlo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 48% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG FC OSS 1.75 / VVV Venlo 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.093 / def 0.864 | VVV Venlo attack 1.052 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.30
VVV Venlo xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs VVV Venlo kick off?
FC OSS vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs VVV Venlo?
FC OSS 1 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is FC OSS vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs VVV Venlo part of?
FC OSS vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 48% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC OSS and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and VVV Venlo?
Record (2 meetings): FC OSS 2W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are FC OSS and VVV Venlo in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (1.09) and VVV Venlo's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.27
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.05
1.30
VVV Venlo xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
5%
20.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC OSS and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.30 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS's recent record stands at 12W 8D 21L from 41 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 19L across 41 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.07 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 8W 2D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.34 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 16W 6D 19L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or VVV Venlo away?
FC OSS's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.30 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and VVV Venlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC OSS
2
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 6, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and VVV Venlo?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 65%, VVV Venlo 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC OSS and 65% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC OSS's games and 45% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC OSS's matches and 65% of VVV Venlo's.
Do FC OSS and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat FC OSS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.75 xG and VVV Venlo 1.30 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against VVV Venlo attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 48% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 29%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 63%, VVV Venlo 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.07 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.