FC OSS 3-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Roda at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 0, Roda 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Roda in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 61% and Roda 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 65% | Roda 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.16 xG and Roda 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.754 / defence 1.036 | Roda attack 1.109 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.366. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 FC OSS games / 49 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | Roda 47%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 2.13. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | Roda 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG FC OSS 1.16 / Roda 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.754 / def 1.036 | Roda attack 1.109 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Roda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Roda xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Roda kick off?
FC OSS vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Roda?
FC OSS 3 - 0 Roda.
Where is FC OSS vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Roda part of?
FC OSS vs Roda is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 28% chance of winning, Roda a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC OSS and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 0 | Roda 2W.
What form are FC OSS and Roda in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.75x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
28%
3.55
25%
4.00
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.73
1.57
Roda xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.57 for Roda, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS's recent record stands at 14W 9D 26L from 49 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 11L across 49 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 8W 9D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.96 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Roda in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Roda in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 14W 9D 26L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Roda have gone 22W 16D 11L in their last 49 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.12 PPG; Roda away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
2
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Roda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 67%, Roda 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC OSS and 58% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC OSS's games and 62% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC OSS's matches and 58% of Roda's.
Do FC OSS and Roda tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Roda 3-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.16 xG and Roda 1.57 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.75 / defence 1.04 against Roda attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | Roda 47%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 65%, Roda 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with FC OSS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.