FC OSS 1-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Jong AZ at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 16 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong AZ — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC OSS, 1 for Jong AZ and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with FC OSS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 56% versus Jong AZ 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 63% | Jong AZ 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.23 xG and Jong AZ 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.850 / defence 1.095 | Jong AZ attack 0.860 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.345. Data: 57 FC OSS games / 57 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 36% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 37%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC OSS 40% | Jong AZ 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 16 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 36% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG FC OSS 1.23 / Jong AZ 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.850 / def 1.095 | Jong AZ attack 0.860 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Jong AZ xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 January 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
FC OSS 1 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is FC OSS vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Jong AZ part of?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 36% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC OSS and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Record (2 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.70
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.50
1.27
Jong AZ xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.27 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 11D 30L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.23 PPG from 57 outings (20W 10D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.04 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC OSS's home form reads 9W 6D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.00 points per game from 28 outings (8W 4D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.21 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 16W 11D 30L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 20W 10D 27L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Jong AZ away?
FC OSS's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.18 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 61%, Jong AZ 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (FC OSS) and 50% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of FC OSS's recent matches and 39% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC OSS's matches and 50% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC OSS and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat FC OSS 1-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.23 xG and Jong AZ 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 36% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 37%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 63%, Jong AZ 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.04 PPG, Jong AZ 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.