FC OSS 0-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helmond Sport at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as FC OSS welcome Helmond Sport to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS at Frans Heesen Stadion this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Helmond Sport — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 57% versus Helmond Sport 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 79% | Helmond Sport 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.61 xG and Helmond Sport 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.001 / defence 1.455 | Helmond Sport attack 0.717 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.564. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 FC OSS games / 14 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 38% | Draw 23% | Helmond Sport 39%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Helmond Sport 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 71% | Helmond Sport 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 38% | Draw 23% | Helmond Sport 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG FC OSS 1.61 / Helmond Sport 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.001 / def 1.455 | Helmond Sport attack 0.717 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.564 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Helmond Sport xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 12 November 2021 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
FC OSS 0 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 38% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC OSS and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in?
FC OSS (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 1.00x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
38%
2.63
23%
4.30
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.25
1.63
Helmond Sport xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.63 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 3W 2D 9L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 4W 2D 8L from 14 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.79 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.00 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC OSS's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 0.67 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
5
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 67%, Helmond Sport 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC OSS and 50% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC OSS's games and 50% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC OSS's matches and 50% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC OSS and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC OSS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 15, as FC OSS and Helmond Sport drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.61 xG and Helmond Sport 1.63 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.00 / defence 1.46 against Helmond Sport attack 0.72 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 38% | Draw 23% | Helmond Sport 39%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 79%, Helmond Sport 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.79 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.