FC OSS 0-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees FC Volendam travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 4W 3D 3L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Volendam are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC OSS, 2 for FC Volendam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–4 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 44% versus FC Volendam 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | FC Volendam 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.09 xG and FC Volendam 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.670 / defence 1.243 | FC Volendam attack 1.208 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.298. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 FC OSS games / 28 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 20% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 57%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | FC Volendam 1.75. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 20% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG FC OSS 1.09 / FC Volendam 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.670 / def 1.243 | FC Volendam attack 1.208 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.95
FC Volendam xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs FC Volendam kick off?
FC OSS vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
FC OSS 0 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is FC OSS vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs FC Volendam part of?
FC OSS vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 20% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC OSS and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are FC OSS and FC Volendam in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (0.67) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
20%
4.95
23%
4.30
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.04
1.95
FC Volendam xG
4.95
20%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
3%
34.69
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC OSS and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.95 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS's recent record stands at 15W 14D 33L from 62 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 29L across 62 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.95 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 12W 5D 14L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 8W 9D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.56 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 66%.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 15W 14D 33L in their last 62 games (0.95 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 22W 11D 29L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or FC Volendam away?
FC OSS's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.32 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and FC Volendam runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC OSS
0
Draws
4
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, FC Volendam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when FC Volendam 3-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC OSS at 52%, FC Volendam at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for FC OSS and 74% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC OSS's games and 81% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FC OSS's matches and 74% of FC Volendam's.
Do FC OSS and FC Volendam tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat FC OSS 0-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.09 xG and FC Volendam 1.95 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.67 / defence 1.24 against FC Volendam attack 1.21 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 20% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 57%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, FC Volendam 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Volendam's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.95 PPG, FC Volendam 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.