FC OSS 1-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Emmen travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Emmen — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 40% versus Emmen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 70% | Emmen 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.26 xG and Emmen 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.113 / defence 1.340 | Emmen attack 0.828 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.376. Data: 10 FC OSS games / 10 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 32% | Draw 25% | Emmen 43%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Emmen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 32% | Draw 25% | Emmen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FC OSS 1.26 / Emmen 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.113 / def 1.340 | Emmen attack 0.828 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Emmen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Emmen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Emmen kick off?
FC OSS vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Emmen?
FC OSS 1 - 2 Emmen.
Where is FC OSS vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Emmen part of?
FC OSS vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 32% chance of winning, Emmen a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC OSS and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and Emmen in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Emmen's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
32%
3.17
25%
3.99
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.79
1.53
Emmen xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.59
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.53 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 1D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC OSS's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.50 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Emmen have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.40 PPG; Emmen away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when FC OSS 4-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 60%, Emmen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC OSS and 40% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC OSS's games and 60% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC OSS's matches and 40% of Emmen's.
Do FC OSS and Emmen tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Emmen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out FC OSS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.26 xG and Emmen 1.53 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.11 / defence 1.34 against Emmen attack 0.83 / defence 0.86, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 32% | Draw 25% | Emmen 43%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 70%, Emmen 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.