FC OSS 0-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Frans Heesen Stadion to face FC OSS in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 December 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dordrecht have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for FC OSS against 0.90 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC OSS 1W, Dordrecht 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 57% and Dordrecht 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 66% | Dordrecht 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.852 / defence 1.172 | Dordrecht attack 0.897 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.347. Data: 53 FC OSS games / 54 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 38%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 40% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG FC OSS 1.41 / Dordrecht 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.852 / def 1.172 | Dordrecht attack 0.897 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Dordrecht xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
FC OSS 0 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is FC OSS vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Dordrecht part of?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 37% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC OSS and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.90x) against FC OSS's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
37%
2.68
25%
3.98
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.83
1.42
Dordrecht xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.42 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 15W 9D 29L from 53 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 27L across 53 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for FC OSS against 1.02 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 8W 6D 12L from 26 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 4W 6D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.38 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 15W 9D 29L in their last 53 games (1.02 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Dordrecht away?
FC OSS's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.15 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
3
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Dordrecht have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for FC OSS, 73% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC OSS and 77% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC OSS's games and 73% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC OSS's matches and 77% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC OSS and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out FC OSS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC OSS 0-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.42 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Dordrecht attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 37% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 38%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 66%, Dordrecht 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.02 PPG, Dordrecht 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.